What I am all about.
I'm Tiago, but you can call me James or 雅格. I am a published, award winning, quantitative economist, with 10+ years of experience in data analysis and 4+ years of experience in finance. I am an expert in using economic modeling and data science to analyze large, complex datasets.
My career intersects academia and industry. After completing my undergraduate degree in Economics, I started my career in finance, working for a European stock broker as a financial analyst and had the opportunity to feature in several TV interviews. To further my skills, I did a Master degree in the UK and earned a scholarhip to do my PhD in Economics in the US at Brown University, where I worked in John Vernon Henderson in a NSF and NIH funded project on the aftermath of the 2004 Indian Ocean Earthquake, that included field work in Aceh, Indonesia. In my thesis I analyzed big data, the Brazilian Census micro data for 1980, 1991 and 2000, using Stata and Matlab and I worked as a short-term consultant on Brazil at the World Bank. After completing my PhD I worked at the National University of Singapore, where I received several awards for my research, and moved for a better position at the Internationl Business School Suzhou of XJTLU in China teaching advanced macroeconomics and quantitative methods and published several papers on top journals such as The World Bank Economic Review , Annals of Regional Science and Food Policy .
In 2015 I returned to finance and joined a startup hedge fund in New York City., where I developed and coded in R, Python and SQL several of our analytical tools, such as our nowcasting/forecasting model, risk model, alternative data harvesting and alternative data analytics including machine learning company sales forecasting.
10+ years of experience in applied economics & data analysis and 4+ years of experience in finance.
Economics - Coding - Finance - Languages
Views on the economy
|06/01/2019 03:32 PM|
|The U.S. Federal Debt - Is it Getting Too Real?|
The Federal debt has risen on average +8.5% each year over the last 52 years, from $320bn in the beginning of 1966 to $22tn at the end of 2018.
At the same time, national income, as measured by nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has increased on average only +6.4% per year. As the Federal debt increased at a faster pace than GDP the debt to GDP ratio has increased from 40.3% in 1966 to 105.3% in 2018.
Policy makers and economists alike have become concerned regarding the debt level. Is the current debt level sustainable?
Historically low interest rates make the direct cost of the U.S. Federal debt, the interest payments on the debt, far from their historical maximums. Interest payments depend not only on the size of debt but also on interest rates. Since the 1980’s interest rates on the 10-year Treasury bonds have declined from a maximum of 15.15% in 1981 to 2.53% in 2019.
As a result, interest payments on the current Federal debt has declined from a maximum of 5.0% in 1995 to 3.2% in 2019.
We must not forget the indirect costs of the U.S. Federal debt. There are several channels through which high U.S. Federal debt could adversely impact medium- and long-run growth which have received attention in the economics literature. High public debt can adversely affect capital accumulation and growth via higher long-term interest rates, higher future taxation, inflation, and greater uncertainty regarding economic policies and prospects. In more extreme cases of a debt crisis, by triggering a banking or currency crisis, these effects can be magnified. High debt is also likely to constrain the scope for stabilization policies during recessions, which may result in higher volatility in terms of GDP growth, inflation and employment and further lower growth.
Today U.S. real GDP growth is on average 1.3 percentage points lower, relative to 1966 due to the increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio. In general, the estimated impact of the U.S. Federal debt on growth is small, with a 10 percentage points increase in the initial debt-to-GDP ratio leading to 20 basis points slowdown in annual real per capita GDP growth . This implies that the U.S. economy could have grown at 4.2% in 2018 instead of the 2.9% recorded at the end of the year, if the debt-to-GDP level had remained at its 1966 level.
A large number of empirical papers find that the relationship between debt and growth is non-linear and characterized by the presence of a threshold, around 90 to 100 of debt-to-GDP, above which debt starts having a larger negative effect on economic growth. However, the negative relationship between debt and growth and the classic 90 percent threshold are not robust across samples, specifications, and estimation techniques. In particular, there is evidence that the effect of debt depends on the quality of institutions and that its negative effect is confined to non-democratic developing countries and economies in which the majority of debt-holders are non-resident. It is not clear whether a debt overhang argument can be easily applied to the U.S. economy.
In conclusion, the cost of the Federal debt in terms of real GDP growth could already be large and the U.S. economy could benefit from a reduction in Federal debt. However, it is unlikely that U.S. economic growth will collapse if it passed a certain critical level of debt-to-GDP.
|10/22/2014 10:02 PM|
|Wage Subsidies and the Labor Supply of Older People: Evidence from Singapore's Workfare Income Supplement Scheme|
I currently completed and submitted to a journal a paper on the labour supply impact of a wage subsidy program for older workers. In particular, I looked at the impact of the Workfare Income Supplement Scheme in Singapore and found that the program increased the labour supply of women age 60 to 64 by 3.3 and 5.4 percentage points. This is the same paper I presented at the Asian Pacific Economies Seminar in May. You can find the paper on SSRN.
|09/14/2014 01:43 AM|
|Using Wikipedia to enhance student learning: A case study in economics|
I have completed and uploaded on SSRN a new version of my joint paper with JingPing Li on using Wikipedia in teaching economics.
|09/14/2014 01:40 AM|
|Rural-Urban Migration and the Skill Wage Premium in Brazil: 1980-2000|
I have uploaded a new version of my paper on rural-urban migration and the skill wage premium in Brazil. It is available on SSRN
|12/13/2013 05:04 AM|
|Cidade De Deus Redux: Inequality, Migration and Violent Crime in Brazil between 1980 and 2000|
I recently finished a first draft of my paper "Cidade de Deus Redux: Inequality, Migration and Violent Crime in Brazil between 1980 and 2000". It is available on SSRN (just follow the link). Feel free to send any comment or question you may have.
Labor Economics, Regional Economics and the Macroeconomy.
Packages for R
Helping people grow.
I am a member of the Higher Education Academy in the U.K. and have a Certificate of Professional Studies in Learning and Teaching in Higher Education from the University of Liverpool and completed the Professional Development Programme from the Centre for Development of Teaching and Learning at the National University of Singapore as well as Certificates in Teaching from the Sheridan Center for Teaching and Learning Brown University.
While at the International Business School Suzhou at Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University I won the Dean's Award for Outstanding Contribution to Learning and Teaching.
You can download a paper version of my portfolio here.